Ben

Ben Henley

Dr Henley is a Research Fellow in the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Melbourne and a Lecturer in palaeoclimatology at Monash University. He is the named Research Fellow for the Victorian Drought Risk Inference Project (VicDRIP) and is investigating decadal climate variations, megadrought risk and hydrological impacts using multi-proxy palaeoclimate records, observed data and climate model simulations.

Comment and Analysis

  1. King, A. D., Henley, B. J., Ukkola, A. (2018) Is Australia’s current drought caused by climate change? It’s complicated The Conversation (8 June 2018)
  2. Freund, M., Henley, B. J., Allen, K., Baker, P. (2018) Recent Australian droughts may be the worst in 800 years The Conversation (2 May 2018)
  3. Henley, B. J. & Abram, N. (2017) The three-minute story of 800,000 years of climate change with a sting in the tail The Conversation (13 June 2017)
  4. King, A. D., Henley, B. J., Hawkins, E. (2017) What is a pre-industrial climate and why does it matter? The Conversation (8 June 2017)
  5. King, A. D., Karoly, D. J. & Henley, B. J. (2017) Why 2℃ of global warming is much worse for Australia than 1.5℃ The Conversation (16 May 2017)
  6. King, A. D., Karoly, D. J. & Henley, B. J. (2017) Heating up: How rises in global temperature could damage the reef Pursuit (16 May 2017)
  7. Henley, B. J. & King, A. D. (2017) Comment on “Reports of breaching 1.5°C warming soon are exaggerated” by Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner and Niklas Roming (10 May 2017) (12 May 2017)
  8. Henley, B. J. & King, A. D. (2017) Global warming could accelerate towards 1.5℃ if the Pacific gets cranky The Conversation (9 May 2017)
  9. Abram, N., & Henley, B. J. (2017) FactCheck Q&A: was it four degrees hotter 110,000 years ago? The Conversation (20 February 2017)
  10. Henley, B. J. et al (2017) Meet El Niño’s cranky uncle that could send global warming into hyperdrive. The Conversation (6 February 2017)
  11. King, A. D. & Henley, B. J.  (2016) September brought the world’s record-breaking hot streak to an end – but don’t chill out. The Conversation (21 October 2016)
  12. King, A. D. & Henley, B. J. (2016) We have almost certainly blown the 1.5-degree global warming target. The Conversation (15 August 2016)

 

Contact

Dr Benjamin J. Henley

Research Fellow, School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne

Lecturer, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University

VicDRIP | Victorian Drought Risk Inference Project 

Associate Investigator | ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes

E: bhenley@unimelb.edu.au | ben.henley@monash.edu 

P: +613 8344 7997 | Research: Google ScholarResearchGate 

Bio

Dr Henley is a Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne, Lecturer at Monash University and an Associate Investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. Dr Henley received his PhD in hydrology and climate variability from the University of Newcastle (Australia) in 2012. He has worked in both academia and industry investigating hydro-climatic variability and water resource system performance, including hydrological modelling underpinning major water planning decisions. Dr Henley’s research interests include: decadal climate variability and climate change, the climate of the past 2000 years, the evaluation of large-scale climate circulation modes in climate models, hydrological modelling for water supply planning and the impacts and palaeoclimate context of anthropogenic climate change.

Publications

Please email bhenley@unimelb.edu.au for access to pdf versions of these manuscripts.

Journal Articles

  1. Berghout, B., Henley, B. J. & Kuczera, G., (2017) Impact of Climate Data Uncertainty on Estimated System Yield, Australasian Journal of Water Resources, doi:10.1080/13241583.2017.1404550
  2. Henley B. J. (2017) Pacific decadal climate variability: indices, patterns and tropical-extratropical interactions, invited review in Global and Planetary Change, 155, pp. 42-55. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2017.06.004
  3. Power, S., Saurral, R., Chung, C., Colman, R., Kharin, V., Boer, G., Gergis, J., Henley, B. J., McGregor, S., Arblaster, J., Holbrook, N. and Liguori, G. Towards the prediction of multi-year to decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. PAGES Magazine, vol. 25(1), 32-40, 2017, https://doi.org/10.22498/pages.25.1.32
  4. Pages2k consortium, incl. Henley B. J. (2017) A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data (major credits go to Emile-Geay, J., McKay, N. P., Kaufman, D. S., von Gunten, L., Wang, J. and Anchukaitis, K. J.)
  5. King, A. D., Karoly, D. J. and Henley, B. J. (2017) Australian climate extremes at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warmingNature Clim. Change, pp. 1–7doi:10.1038/nclimate3296
  6. Henley B. J. & King, A. D. (2017) Trajectories towards the 1.5°C Paris target: modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific OscillationGeophys. Res. Lett., pp. 1–7. doi:10.1002/2017GL073480. Meltwater media report here.
  7. Henley, B. J., Meehl, G., Power, S., Folland, C., King, A., Brown, J. & Neukom, R. (2017) Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Environmental Research Letters, doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa5cc8
  8. Freund, M., Henley, B. J., Karoly, D. J., Allen, K. J. and Baker, P. J. (2017) Multi-century cool-and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia’s major climatic regionsClimate of the Past13(12), 1751. doi: 10.5194/cp-13-1751-2017
  9. Hope, P., Henley, B. J., Gergis, J., Brown, J., & Ye, H. (2017). Time-varying spectral characteristics of ENSO over the Last Millennium. Climate Dynamics, pp. 1–23. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3393-z
  10. Gergis, J. & Henley, B. J. (2016), Southern Hemisphere rainfall variability over the past 200 yearsClimate Dynamics, pp. 1–19. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3191-7
  11. Brown, J. R., Hope, P., Gergis, J. & Henley, B. J. (2015), ENSO teleconnections with Australian rainfall in coupled model simulations of the last millenniumClimate Dynamics, pp. 1–15. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2824-6
  12. Mortazavi-Naeini, M., Kuczera, G., Kiem, A.S., Cui, L., Henley, B. J., Berghout, B. & Turner, E., (2015), Robust optimization to secure urban bulk water supply against extreme drought and uncertain climate changeEnvironmental Modelling and Software, vol. 69, pp. 437–451.
  13. Henley, B. J., Gergis, J., Karoly, D. J., Power, S. B., Kennedy, J. & Folland, C.K., (2015) A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Climate Dynamics, 1–14. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2525-1
  14. Turner, B. D., Henley, B. J., Sleap, S. B. & Sloan, S. W.(2014) Kinetic model selection and the Hill model in geochemistry. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. Sept, 1–14
  15. Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, and G. Kuczera (2013), Climate driver informed short-term drought risk evaluationWater Resour. Res., 49, 2317–2326, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20222
  16. Henley, B. J., M.A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, & S.W. Franks (2011), Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo dataWater Resour. Res., 47, W11509, doi:10.1029/2010WR010034

Teaching

  1. Palaeoclimatology, (Semester 1, 2018, 3rd year, 22 Lectures, 11 Seminar-workshops, 20 hrs Pracs), Course development, Course coordinator, Chief Examiner and Lecturer, Monash University, Australia. Synopsis: Palaeoclimatology is the study of changes in climate taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth. The unit will provide an introduction to the methods of past climate reconstructions and the most important climate proxy records. It will discuss the evolution of the Earth climate from the formation of Earth to the present with a particular focus on the history of mankind and how this relates to future anthropogenic climate change. It will discuss the physical processes causing past changes in climate on a number of time scales.
  2. Blue Planet – Intro to Marine Environments (Semester 1, 2017, 2nd year, 4 Lectures), Lecturer, University of Melbourne, Australia.
  3. Climate Affairs (Semester 1, 2017, 1 Lecture), Lecturer,University of Melbourne, Australia.
  4. Blue Planet – Intro to Marine Environments (Semester 1, 2016, 2nd year, 4 Lectures), Lecturer, University of Melbourne, Australia.
  5. Climate Affairs (Semester 1, 2016, 1 Lecture), Lecturer, University of Melbourne, Australia.
  6. Climate Affairs (Semester 2, 2015, 1 Lecture), Lecturer, University of Melbourne, Australia.
  7. Climate Change 3 (Semester 2, 2014, Workshop leader) Demonstrator, University of Melbourne, Australia.

 

Book Chapters

17. Baines, P. G. & Henley, B. J. (2015), ‘The effect of global dynamical factors on the interannual variability of land-based rainfall’, Chapter in J Li, R Swinbank, H Volkert, & R Grotjahn (eds), Dynamics and Predictability of Large-Scale High Impact Weather and Climate Events, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.

18. Mortazavi-Naeini, M., Kuczera, G., Kiem, A. S., Cui, L., Henley, B. J., Berghout, B. and Turner, E. (2014) Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate, in Applied Studies in Climate Adaptation (eds J. P. Palutikof, S. L. Boulter, J. Barnett and D. Rissik), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK.

Selected Conference Papers

Berghout, B., Henley, B. J. & Kuczera, G., (2015) ‘Impact of Climate Data Uncertainty on Estimated System Yield’, full length paper, 36th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, December 2015* [Awarded the G.N. Alexander Medal by Engineers Australia]

Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, and S.W. Franks (2009), How long do phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) persist? Utilising palaeoclimate data in stochastic hydrology, 32nd Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium*

Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, and S.W. Franks (2008), Short-Term Drought Risk Dynamics: The Impact of Multi-decadal Climate Variability and Water Supply Properties, World Environmental & Water Resources Congress, Honolulu, USA

Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, G. Kuczera, and S. Franks (2008), Evaluating drought risk dynamics: Comparison of a Climate-Informed Multi-time Scale Stochastic (CIMSS) framework to the AR(1) model, Water Down Under: 31st Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium and 4th International Conference on Water Resources and Environment Research, Adelaide*

Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer and G. Kuczera (2007), Seasonal Stochastic Rainfall Modelling Using Climate Indices: A Bayesian Hierarchical Model, International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Christchurch*

Henley, B. J., M. A. Thyer, G. Kuczera and S. Franks (2006), Incorporating Long-Term Climate Information into Stochastic Models of Annual Hydrological Data: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach, 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston* (*peer reviewed papers)

PhD Thesis

Henley, B. J. (2012), Climate-Informed Stochastic Hydrological Modelling, PhD thesis, The University of Newcastle, Australia

Selected Presentations

Henley, B.J. (2018), Severe drought in southern Australia in a warming world, AMOS-ICSHMO 2018, Sydney, Australia (oral presentation and session convenor)

Henley, B.J. (2017), The humanitarian impact of climate change: a science perspective, Woodford Folk Festival, Woodford, Australia (oral presentation and panel member)

Henley, B.J. et al (2017), Climate variability and change on decadal to multi-decadal timescales, AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, USA (session convenor)

Henley, B.J. et al (2017), Hydrological drought in Australia: Paleoclimate baseline and reservoir failure risk at 1.5°C and 2°C Paris targets, AGU Fall Meeting, New Orleans, USA (poster presentation)

Henley, B.J. (2017) A risky drought no doubt: risks to water supply at 1.5°C and higher levels of global warming, ARCCSS Workshop, Canberra, Australia (poster and lightning presentation)

Henley, B.J. (2017) Variability or change in southeast Australian rainfall and streamflow? New hints from multi-century palaeoclimate reconstructions, ARCCSS variability group seminar (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2016), Decadal Variability in the Pacific: Palaeoclimate reconstructions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, AMOS 2016, Melbourne, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2016), Decadal Variability in the Pacific: observations, modelling and palaeoclimate, AMS Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA (oral presentation and session chair)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in CMIP5 models: systematic persistence biases, ARCCSS Workshop on superposition of modes and decadal variability, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), Decadal Climate Variability in the Pacific, Seminar at Australian-German Climate and Energy College, Melbourne, Australia (full seminar presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), Reconstructing the  Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, PAGES2k 4th Aus2k Workshop, Auckland, NZ (oral presentation and workshop)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), Ocean2k project proposal: Reconstructing the  Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, PAGES2k Ocean2k Workshop, Barcelona, Spain (oral presentation and workshop)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), A new index to track the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in observations and models, AMOS 2015, Brisbane, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), Utilising palaeoclimate data in water resource planning: recent work and proposed ARC Linkage Project, VicCI Science Day, Melbourne, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2015), A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, ENSO Extremes and Diversity Workshop, Sydney, Australia (poster + short presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2014), Overview of multi-archive approaches to climate reconstruction: A case study of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, PAGES2k 3rd Aus2k Workshop, Melbourne, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2014), Reconstructing the IPO/PDO: Understanding Pacific Decadal Variability over the last 1000 years, Unimelb Climate Research Connections, University of Melbourne, Australia (short oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2014), Towards a Pacific-wide Palaeo Reconstruction of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, AMOS 2014, Hobart, Australia (poster)

Henley, B.J. et al (2012), Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data, AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, USA (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2009), How long do phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) persist? Utilising palaeoclimate data in stochastic hydrology, Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Newcastle, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2008), Short-term drought risk dynamics: the impact of multi-decadal climate variability and the water supply system properties, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, Honolulu, USA (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2008), Evaluating drought risk dynamics: Comparison of a Climate-Informed Multi-time Scale Stochastic (CIMSS) framework to the AR(1) model, Water Down Under, Adelaide, Australia (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2007), Seasonal Stochastic Rainfall Modelling Using Climate Indices, Modsim 2007, Christchurch, NZ (oral presentation)

Henley, B.J. et al (2006), Incorporating Long-Term Climate Information into Stochastic Models of Annual Hydrological Data: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach, Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, Launceston, Australia (oral presentation)

Other Publications

Henley, B.J., (2017) Pacific decadal climate variability: A factsheet for Australian water resource planners (available here).

Gergis, J., Phipps, S.J., Lorrey, A.M., Abram, N.J., Henley, B.J., Saunders, K.M. & Aus2k Workshop Participants, (2016) 4th Aus2k workshop report – Australasian palaeoclimate of the last 2000 years: Inter-comparison of climate field reconstruction methodologies, modeling, and data synthesis approaches, (Submitted to Quaternary Australasia).

Gergis, J., Lorrey, A.M., Abram, N.J., Henley, B.J., Phipps, S.J., Saunders, K.M. & Aus2k Workshop Participants, (2015) 4th Aus2k workshop report – Australasian palaeoclimate of the last 2000 years: Inter-comparison of climate field reconstruction methodologies, modeling, and data synthesis approaches, Pages Magazine.

Hope, P., Gergis, J., Abram, N.J., Brown, J.R., Phipps, S.J., Drysdale, R., Henley, B.J., Lorrey, A.M., Roop, H. & Tyler, J. (2014), ‘Workshop report: Australasia’s past climate variability-strengths drawn from palaeoclimate and model data over the last 2,000 years’, Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, vol. 27, pp. 92–95.

Berghout, B., Henley, B.J. et al (2014) SoMo Documentation – Hunter Water Headworks Simulation Model, Version 2012.3c, Technical Report, Hunter Water Corporation, Newcastle, Australia.

Mortazavi-Naeini, Mohammad, G. Kuczera, AS Kiem, B.J. Henley, B. Berghout and E. Turner (2013), Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate, Report by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 74 pp.

Publication Contributions/Acknowledgements

Scaife, A. et al (2015), Big Changes Underway in the Climate System? UK Met Office Report (contributed figures/data)

Folland C.K. (2016) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in Scaife, A. (Ed.) 30-Second Meteorology, The 50 Most Significant Events and Phenomena, Each Explained in Half a Minute, Ivy Press, East Sussex, UK. (contributed figures)

King, A. D., Black, M. T., Min, S. K., Fischer, E. M., Mitchell, D. M., Harrington, L. J., & Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E. (2016). Emergence of heat extremes attributable to anthropogenic influences. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(7), 3438–3443. doi:10.1002/2015GL067448 (contributed discussions)

Conference Session Chairing

Henley, B. J., Ukkola, A. (2018), Session Chair: Processes, impacts and likelihood of severe droughts in the Southern Hemisphere, AMOS-ICSHMO 2017, Sydney, Australia

Henley, B. J., Folland,  C. (2017), Session Chair: Climate variability and change on decadal to multi-decadal timescales, AGU Fall Meeting 2017, New Orleans, USA

Henley, B. J., Power, S.B. (2017), Session Chair: Decadal climate variability: observations, mechanisms, predictability and prediction, AMOS 2017, Canberra, Australia

Henley, B. J. (2016), Session Chair: Decadal-Multidecadal Variability in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Basins, Americal Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, New Orleans, USA